Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and am not qualified to help with financial planning in any way, shape, or form. I am best referred to as an online schizophrenic that connects the dots between geopolitical events and tends to make crazy, and concentrated, bets on stocks. I am not qualified for anything other than tying my shoes and driving my car, and I thank you for your attention to this matter.
With that said, I’m not sure if I’ll always do a quaterly update since, despite what people think, I actually don’t trade much. You’ll notice for the most part, my portfolio hasn’t changed beyond adding new stocks via debt because I tend to try and identify whatever stocks I think will benefit the most from the current political scene around the earth and hold. This post will begin with an outline of how I think the Strait of Hormuz situation will evolve. It will then go into my portfolio weightings. The TL;DR is I entered 2025 without using much, if any debt. I’ve since added a lot of debt to my investments, buying dips and/or opening new positions.
The most recent approximation of my thoughts is within an interview I did with Brandon Beylo, published this Friday on his Value Hive podcast, see here:
Important note: the next post I publish will hopefully be an artsy one about living life, as afterall, this is the demystifying life blog. When I publish it I’ll move up the annual cost to subscribe by around 20%. This next post will also include a discount code for approximately 20% off the increased price, which will expire after a few weeks.
If you are an existing subscriber, your price will not increase. If you subscribe using the discount code, your price will be locked in, and never increase.
The point is, whatever the price is you’re paying now, if you don’t cancel, will remain the price you pay going forward.
So if you’re not a paying subscriber, but want to support this insanity, using that discount code might be a good option if you don’t subscribe before the price increase.
Begin.
My thoughts on macro are below. I am currently very annoyed by war pigs, and wish I could’ve just had an easy year investing in mines. Alas, the oligarchs command death and hatred to mankind, so what can you do other than invest accordingly and make money off it. How fucked up the world is that I’m writing this. Hopefully we can change this one day…
To start, recall that I think the world will have a fuel crisis, and I was second to call this, with only Calvin Froedge beating me to it by a few hours because I was sleeping. What do I mean by fuel crisis? Well…
Poor countries are in serious trouble, and poor countries without their own refining capacity better be stacking food and water because this could become a serious mess.
Australia isn’t supposed to be a poor country, but due to some geriatric brain illnesses, the population that lives there loves to elect leftists that do things like ban nuclear power, and encourage natural gas (imported from the middle east), and best of all, love to pretend they can lower their carbon footprint by letting India / China / etc refine oil into gasoline + diesel + jet fuel. That brings the Australian CO2 output per year chart down compared to refining oil to fuel domestically, (Australia is producing less CO2 WOO!!) and pushes up India and China’s CO2 output per year by the amount Australia saves (is this called net zero???), but leaves Australia to get destroyed by a fuel crisis when the most unstable region on earth, with historically the most wars, decides to do what it does best: set itself on fire.
It’s unfair to blame the arabs too much here also (though they did push Trump to do what he did), but I think the man to blame is Netanyahu, and the insanely bloodthirsty Israelis that support him (far too many of them). I reiterate, that if Iran was truly weeks away from a nuclear weapon and causing a nuclear apocalypse, the other two powerful nations, being Russia and China, both having powerful intelligence agencies, would be on our side to stop it. Thus, I conclude this is pure Israeli propaganda to drag the West into a new war. Great.
Back on track: Australia’s economy is going to grind to a halt as they fail to source diesel and fuel, and many of their mines shut down and lay people off. The same goes for New Zealand. The same goes for most of Africa, and some parts of Asia.
It is a fact that at least 8 mil barrels/day of Middle Eastern oil production is offline. It is a fact the Saudi’s and UAE will never be okay with Iran charging a toll to use the Strait of Hormuz. It is a fact that a serious missile strike on Yanbu pipeline pumping staitions would immediately send oil over $200 if it resulted in a total failure of the pipeline. It is a fact that oil wells that get shut in can’t be brought online easily. It is a fact that Russia has lost almost 1/4th of its export capacity due to Ukraine being the black swan that squeezes the worlds’ oil production and fuel supplies.
These are all things I predicted earlier in Q1 2026, but the point is, a lot of mines are going offline: tons of them. This is going to mess up NVDA, so it’s going to mess up SPY. The market should tank. But what do I know, Warren Buffett agrees with me, calling this pullback “a tiny 5%”, and going on to say approximately that he’s not in “the game to make 5%, but more like 50%” when he buys the dip.
Fertilizer: I think 2022 / 2023 shows that fertilizer likes to cycle and crash quickly. I don’t own any direct exposure because I’d rather benefit from a surprise, like Suncor’s 800k t/yr exports of sulfur, which, should sulfur prices increase the way I think they will, should result in a 2% or so of their market cap in pure free cash flow injected into their bank balance.
Helium shortage: going to mess up tech. People are talking about this, I don’t care too much because it seems like it will be much easier to print returns within oil producers. I’d rather bet on this, since it’s easier to understand, than derivatives of the main event. I do have one idea here, but I haven’t had time to look into it yet. Perhaps a future post will dig deep into it.
What’s next?
I can see two routes forward. The likely one is some kind of use of USA ground troops in Iran in the near future. I think this because Trump tends to say “we aren’t going to do anything, we are leaving, etc, etc” then attack Iran (happened 2x after lots of these headlines, and there’s been lots of these headlines for the last 10 days). I think he thinks he’s getting them to drop their guard (and maybe he is).
The other route is a genuine TACO, but that won’t work because the Saudi’s + UAEs won’t be okay with Iran charging a toll and OPEC is run by the Saudi’s. Look at the recent Saudi vs Russia oil price war over 300k barrels/day (Russia refused to cut), the Saudi’s flooded the market. I just don’t see this happening! Again, what do I know, but the vibe here is that a peace deal is far away.
Nonetheless, independent of a peace deal, oil infrastructure has blown up. I find it hard to believe that oil prices can spend much time below $100 over the next 12 months, and the oil producers I own below are all awesome in that environment. We are one major pipeline hit away from $150 to $250 oil too, just has to be the right pipeline (e.g. russia southern pipelines or Saudi East-West Yanbu, etc).
Overall I hate this situation. War is fucking stupid and people are stupid for being so full of hatred that they’re blind. I blame all sides, and renew my call for fellow liberatarians to move to Alberta and assist with secession from the Zionist empire. We can pull this off, we just need people who know how to make money to come help us create the lowest tax jurisdiction in the world, that still has underlying civilization (e.g. isn’t an island frequently hit by hurricanes in the Caribbean).
Okay, on to my portfolio and my balancings below. I’ll explain here how I’ve set this up. I’m going to be reporting a “net worth %” and also a “portfolio %” number. This is because I’m using a lot of debt, and I typically think of investments as “what % of my net worth did I put into this” and the total percentages add up over 100% because I am borrowing money.
Additionally, this portfolio will soon be out of date, because I’m going to blow my current buying power on a new oil producer or two that I’ll write about imminently. Nonetheless, I think it’s robust to the current world situation, and I don’t expect to sell anything, I just expect to spend all my dry powder attempting to repeat the insane gains I achieved in 2025. Yes: I’ve decided to go in with even more leverage, do not follow me on this, I am insane and could easily go bankrupt if I make even a small error. I promise we have different financial goals, and whoever you are reading this, you do not want the risk of using so much debt. I have no choice but to do this because I want to be able to solve some major open problems within science and mathematics while my brain is in its peak performing years (my youth) and I need to speed things up. Remember, “Power comes in response to a need, not a desire” - Goku
I reiterate one last time, if you copy me, you’re insane and irresponsible and can’t blame me if I blow myself up and anyone who attempted to copy me. The risks of using margin are extreme, and no one has ever used a lot of margin for an extended period of time without going bankrupt. I am not even qualified to tell you about the risks, but if you ask anyone that knows anything, they’ll say “don’t use margin”.