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If you keep reading, you agree that it’s purely for entertainment purposes, because that’s what I do, I entertain people.

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Anyway, let’s run through my ideas about this company and the sleeper assets I believe the market totally missed on their balance sheet.

First, I’d like to thank you guys for your support.

Since launching the substack every idea I’ve had has worked out almost immediately after my proposal of the concept. As my Q2 report detailed, I’m still bullish on all those ideas, and I didn’t sell anything to buy this new position. I maxed both my line of credits, and cash advanced as much as I could off my two credit cards (yes I’m willing to pay 20%/yr interest for this one), and used a bit of margin.

The blog has now grown to half the size of what I consider to be “large enough”, being 1337 paying subscribers. Once I hit that number, I will stop accepting new subscribers.

Also, inspired by Calvin Froedge, I will offer lifetime subscriptions for $5000 USD. There are actually some people paying more than this just for annual subscriptions, since the stocks-speculator lets you pick the amount you want to pay, but I digress.

Are you ready for this?

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With that said, I’m not sure if I’ll always do a quaterly update since, despite what people think, I actually don’t trade much. You’ll notice for the most part, my portfolio hasn’t changed beyond adding new stocks via debt because I tend to try and identify whatever stocks I think will benefit the most from the current political scene around the earth and hold. This post will begin with an outline of how I think the Strait of Hormuz situation will evolve. It will then go into my portfolio weightings. The TL;DR is I entered 2025 without using much, if any debt. I’ve since added a lot of debt to my investments, buying dips and/or opening new positions.

The most recent approximation of my thoughts is within an interview I did with Brandon Beylo, published this Friday on his Value Hive podcast, see here:

Important note: the next post I publish will hopefully be an artsy one about living life, as afterall, this is the demystifying life blog. When I publish it I’ll move up the annual cost to subscribe by around 20%. This next post will also include a discount code for approximately 20% off the increased price, which will expire after a few weeks.

If you are an existing subscriber, your price will not increase. If you subscribe using the discount code, your price will be locked in, and never increase.

The point is, whatever the price is you’re paying now, if you don’t cancel, will remain the price you pay going forward.

So if you’re not a paying subscriber, but want to support this insanity, using that discount code might be a good option if you don’t subscribe before the price increase.

Begin.

My thoughts on macro are below. I am currently very annoyed by war pigs, and wish I could’ve just had an easy year investing in mines. Alas, the oligarchs command death and hatred to mankind, so what can you do other than invest accordingly and make money off it. How fucked up the world is that I’m writing this. Hopefully we can change this one day…

To start, recall that I think the world will have a fuel crisis, and I was second to call this, with only Calvin Froedge beating me to it by a few hours because I was sleeping. What do I mean by fuel crisis? Well…

Poor countries are in serious trouble, and poor countries without their own refining capacity better be stacking food and water because this could become a serious mess.

Australia isn’t supposed to be a poor country, but due to some geriatric brain illnesses, the population that lives there loves to elect leftists that do things like ban nuclear power, and encourage natural gas (imported from the middle east), and best of all, love to pretend they can lower their carbon footprint by letting India / China / etc refine oil into gasoline + diesel + jet fuel. That brings the Australian CO2 output per year chart down compared to refining oil to fuel domestically, (Australia is producing less CO2 WOO!!) and pushes up India and China’s CO2 output per year by the amount Australia saves (is this called net zero???), but leaves Australia to get destroyed by a fuel crisis when the most unstable region on earth, with historically the most wars, decides to do what it does best: set itself on fire.

It’s unfair to blame the arabs too much here also (though they did push Trump to do what he did), but I think the man to blame is Netanyahu, and the insanely bloodthirsty Israelis that support him (far too many of them). I reiterate, that if Iran was truly weeks away from a nuclear weapon and causing a nuclear apocalypse, the other two powerful nations, being Russia and China, both having powerful intelligence agencies, would be on our side to stop it. Thus, I conclude this is pure Israeli propaganda to drag the West into a new war. Great.

Back on track: Australia’s economy is going to grind to a halt as they fail to source diesel and fuel, and many of their mines shut down and lay people off. The same goes for New Zealand. The same goes for most of Africa, and some parts of Asia.

It is a fact that at least 8 mil barrels/day of Middle Eastern oil production is offline. It is a fact the Saudi’s and UAE will never be okay with Iran charging a toll to use the Strait of Hormuz. It is a fact that a serious missile strike on Yanbu pipeline pumping staitions would immediately send oil over $200 if it resulted in a total failure of the pipeline. It is a fact that oil wells that get shut in can’t be brought online easily. It is a fact that Russia has lost almost 1/4th of its export capacity due to Ukraine being the black swan that squeezes the worlds’ oil production and fuel supplies.

These are all things I predicted earlier in Q1 2026, but the point is, a lot of mines are going offline: tons of them. This is going to mess up NVDA, so it’s going to mess up SPY. The market should tank. But what do I know, Warren Buffett agrees with me, calling this pullback “a tiny 5%”, and going on to say approximately that he’s not in “the game to make 5%, but more like 50%” when he buys the dip.

Fertilizer: I think 2022 / 2023 shows that fertilizer likes to cycle and crash quickly. I don’t own any direct exposure because I’d rather benefit from a surprise, like Suncor’s 800k t/yr exports of sulfur, which, should sulfur prices increase the way I think they will, should result in a 2% or so of their market cap in pure free cash flow injected into their bank balance.

Helium shortage: going to mess up tech. People are talking about this, I don’t care too much because it seems like it will be much easier to print returns within oil producers. I’d rather bet on this, since it’s easier to understand, than derivatives of the main event. I do have one idea here, but I haven’t had time to look into it yet. Perhaps a future post will dig deep into it.

What’s next?

I can see two routes forward. The likely one is some kind of use of USA ground troops in Iran in the near future. I think this because Trump tends to say “we aren’t going to do anything, we are leaving, etc, etc” then attack Iran (happened 2x after lots of these headlines, and there’s been lots of these headlines for the last 10 days). I think he thinks he’s getting them to drop their guard (and maybe he is).

The other route is a genuine TACO, but that won’t work because the Saudi’s + UAEs won’t be okay with Iran charging a toll and OPEC is run by the Saudi’s. Look at the recent Saudi vs Russia oil price war over 300k barrels/day (Russia refused to cut), the Saudi’s flooded the market. I just don’t see this happening! Again, what do I know, but the vibe here is that a peace deal is far away.

Nonetheless, independent of a peace deal, oil infrastructure has blown up. I find it hard to believe that oil prices can spend much time below $100 over the next 12 months, and the oil producers I own below are all awesome in that environment. We are one major pipeline hit away from $150 to $250 oil too, just has to be the right pipeline (e.g. russia southern pipelines or Saudi East-West Yanbu, etc).

Overall I hate this situation. War is fucking stupid and people are stupid for being so full of hatred that they’re blind. I blame all sides, and renew my call for fellow liberatarians to move to Alberta and assist with secession from the Zionist empire. We can pull this off, we just need people who know how to make money to come help us create the lowest tax jurisdiction in the world, that still has underlying civilization (e.g. isn’t an island frequently hit by hurricanes in the Caribbean).

Okay, on to my portfolio and my balancings below. I’ll explain here how I’ve set this up. I’m going to be reporting a “net worth %” and also a “portfolio %” number. This is because I’m using a lot of debt, and I typically think of investments as “what % of my net worth did I put into this” and the total percentages add up over 100% because I am borrowing money.

Additionally, this portfolio will soon be out of date, because I’m going to blow my current buying power on a new oil producer or two that I’ll write about imminently. Nonetheless, I think it’s robust to the current world situation, and I don’t expect to sell anything, I just expect to spend all my dry powder attempting to repeat the insane gains I achieved in 2025. Yes: I’ve decided to go in with even more leverage, do not follow me on this, I am insane and could easily go bankrupt if I make even a small error. I promise we have different financial goals, and whoever you are reading this, you do not want the risk of using so much debt. I have no choice but to do this because I want to be able to solve some major open problems within science and mathematics while my brain is in its peak performing years (my youth) and I need to speed things up. Remember, “Power comes in response to a need, not a desire” - Goku

I reiterate one last time, if you copy me, you’re insane and irresponsible and can’t blame me if I blow myself up and anyone who attempted to copy me. The risks of using margin are extreme, and no one has ever used a lot of margin for an extended period of time without going bankrupt. I am not even qualified to tell you about the risks, but if you ask anyone that knows anything, they’ll say “don’t use margin”.

Below is a toy portfolio that I think is robust to current chaos with ample upside potential.

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I recently took a margin loan for 78% of my net worth to buy oil companies ($SU + calls were the majority of it, then and then a sprinkling of with a dash of $SCR. Most people would call this lunacy and gambling, but what do most people know! Pundits on the internet made memes of me pushing my balls around in a wheelbarrow (thank you South Park & thank you for building the GPUs that let this all happen).

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Ok so, basically, here’s the situation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. Tons of Middle Eastern oil is being shut in. Gas fields (which produce condensate, which becomes diesel / fuel products) have been destroyed. Most importantly, refineries have caught fire and been destroyed. Some in regions far from the war (like Mexico losing 400k bopd refinery throughput).

This fuel production being lost means that mines in some countries will struggle, or even totally fail to source diesel / fuel to keep operations running. This is where things get interesting for the long term gold thesis.

Basically, in the short term I have absolutely no idea what will happen. Tons of bad ideas are flowing around on twitter, like the fact they’ll crank interest rates above 10% to “stop inflation”. That won’t happen, I think at 7.5% or 8% the interest the USA would pay on debt would become the largest federal expense. They’ve also got to refinance a ton of debt this year, and need interest rates to be lower when they do that. It’s just unrealistic to think the USA will be able to increase interest rates here, this isn’t the 70s, the debt:GDP ratio is insane (used to be max 40% now it’s almost 140%).

Okay, so with that idea dead, there’s a thing I haven’t seen anyone talk about.

A global fuel crisis means mines in countries like Bolivia and large parts of Africa won’t be able to source diesel for operations.

It also tends to be the case that mines in Africa are overly reliant on diesel, due to potentially no electric grid.

Take Minera Alamos Pan mine for example, everything is electrified except for the vehicles (that run on diesel). This is why diesel prices could triple from here, and Minera would only add $+500/oz to the AISC. As I’ve been mentioning lately, the fact Minera is located within the USA is about to be an absolutely massive deal — the USA will always have ample diesel supplies, and cheaper oil, due to North America being the behemoth of oil and oil products production.

For Patagonia Gold, Argentina has the fact they’re a net oil exporter going for them. They’ve also got around 600k barrels/day of refining capacity, and can probably get that up to 700k if they really need to. There “should” be ample diesel for those willing to pay the price, as demand destruction (high prices) should help Argentines conserve some of their domestic diesel as people walk / cycle more often to save money.

Overall, I think both Minera Alamos and Patagonia Gold will have access to diesel, it will cost extra, but the point is they’ll actually have access to it.

Recall: COVID-19 lowered global oil demand by around 6.5%, but the Strait of Hormuz (and Iran war) has knocked out at least 10% of global supply.

COVID had lockdowns, bans on air travel, and despite all of that, the world only used ~5% less oil. Now we’re talking about needing to use possibly 15% less oil, and possibly 20% less if things get really messy.

I think the market is going to totally fail to see this in the short term, and gold prices won’t price this in. But really, the point of this article is just that, if the USA wanted to get gold over $10k USD/oz, it’s really starting to look like the Strait of Hormuz crisis is the best and most efficient way to do it.

I have no idea how many mines are going to declare force majeure, but we’re probably talking about 20% less diesel production (because of condensate being lost in addition to oil being lost). I would be shocked if that didn’t cause mines in some countries that have no domestic refining capacity to declare force majeure and shut down.

I will try to actually model this over the coming days. I’ve modelled global supply vs consumption of a commodity before (being uranium), but this one might be a bit harder, so it may take me longer. I already tried with LLMs but I don’t trust their outputs much.

Anyway, we really are one or two refinery fires in unexpected locations (like South America, or the UK or EU or Russia) away from a multiyear fuel crisis.

Best wishes,
G

Begin short post.

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Nonetheless, my gut feelings worked out. Here’s my look at new information and my opinions about what’s worth doing next.

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It is reasonable to say, as many are saying on twitter, that my sanity is to be questioned. I agree.

And on that bombshell, let us begin.

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I started a draft of this a few days ago, and this weekend was so wild from multiple Western governments that I have had to add entirely new sections. Things are going fast—too fast.

As my X followers know, my opinion on commodity cycles is that at the start of a cycle, you want to own the short life of mine (LOM) plays. My choice was Andean precious metals, and it ended up being the second best mining stock performer of 2025, behind Santacruz which was #1.

My opinion on how to play mid cycle to late cycle, will be the underlying theme of this article. Short LOM mines are not really the optimal play anymore. For mid cycle and onwards, you ideally want to own near-term new producers with medium LOM. Anything with a very long LOM already is trading with a hefty premium. Medium LOM assets are however, often still being overlooked at this point in the cycle.

The major tailwinds supporting the 2025 precious metals rally were the following.

1. Weaponization of the USD (this started it all). The USA’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was many sanctions, including freezing >600billion in Russian assets that were held overseas.

   1. Sent a signal to foreign states that holding USD and US treasuries wasn’t a good idea

2. M2 supply growth. A huge boost to M2 from irresponsible spending and policy during the COVID pandemic.

   1. This was the primary driver of inflation over this time period.

3. Inflationary pressures from bad policies. Terrible ideas in basically every Western government resulted in spikes in the cost of almost everything.

   1. Retail investors started investing in gold and silver to hedge against inflation.

4. Rate cuts and the return of quantitative easing. The US Federal reserve is looking to provide liquidity dessert, to keep SPY, QQQ, and VOO going upward.
   

The point: the US is running structurally massive deficits, and there’s no sign of monetary policy (in the West in general, not just the USA) ceasing to be “spend as much as possible, it’s not our money anyway!”. Resultantly, we have massive sovereign buying (and Tether gold buying) of gold.

Idea 1: Minera Alamos MAI.V (Last trade 5.15 CAD) MAIFF (USD) MAIFD (temporary USD ticker)

Conservative estimate, value the three Mexican assets at 0.

Using $4200 gold (current gold spot is close to $4500), an NPV8 calculation for just their USA assets gives a 1.7billion USD fair value today. This contrasts to a fully diluted market cap of around 460mil USD.

Copperstone is supposed to come online late this year (Q4).

The pan mine is already producing, and they’re guiding for 40k oz for 2026. There’s ample exploration upside here, and they “should” be able to squeeze out 20k oz/yr production from this end of life mine for many years after ore from gold rock is trucked to Pan.

Gold rock, which will be funded easily without dilution from warrants being executed above the current share price ($7.00/share), and FCF from Pan + Copperstone has the NPV8 below.

Overall, this gives us 1.7bil USD.

The primary thing I hear from people about why they dislike Minera, is the large number of warrants hanging at $7.00 CAD. I’ve talked in spaces about this, but I don’t see warrants above the share price I pay as bearish. They prevent future dilution, and effectively act as “forcing me to take some tax free profits”, since I get diluted, but the company bank balance increases accordingly. The way I see it, as long as I buy below $7.00 CAD, this is good and lowers the probability of future dilutions.

Most importantly, and the thing everyone seems to miss about why I like Minera: it offers substantial downside protection. If the gold bull market reverses to $3300-$3500 gold/oz, this is still an alright pick. To contrast, almost every other gold jr would have its share price (and net present value) decimated by such a pull back, because they’ve rallied in tandem with the gold rally. My opinion is, with the risk of the gold upcycle coming to an end increasing (the longer we continue to move higher, the later the cycle gets) it’s time to look for opportunities that have pleasant worst case scenarios. For me, MAI fits the bill and is a core holding in all my accounts, particularly my tax protected accounts.

Notes: if they receive their long-awaited permit to mine in Mexico, the shares will immediately re-rate substantially. This means the Mexico portfolio is effectively a free call option you’re paying a $0 premium to add the option to your portfolio.

The point is there’s lots of opportunity for this to evolve into a 5-10x by mid 2028 (2.5 years), and there’s downside protection in the event gold reverses (which I believe unlikely, but you never know).

Next up are my predictions for gold macro in 2026, and a few picks that demonstrate how I think at this stage in a cycle. To be clear, I believe we’re in the peak uncertainty part of the cycle: it could end any day now, or it could rage on for 2-4 more years and become a historical structural supercycle. The main point is, I don’t want to have my portfolio decimated by betting too hard on positive gold beta. This means assuming gold prices go up (or silver prices go up) is absolutely not enough of a reason for me to own a gold miner at this point in time.

Most importantly, my favourite pick for 2026, which I suspect will 4-5x this year, with a gold mine coming on within the next few weeks is detailed at length.

Below used to be for paying subs only, but I’ve made this article free.

So far, 2026 is truly insane.

We’re 10 insane days in at the time of my writing this. We’ve had:

1. Venezuala Maduro situation

2. Leaks about US plans to militarily invade Greenland

3. Iran ???

4. Marco Rubio as President of Cuba

5. Rumours of Western nations (Canada, UK, Australia) moving to ban access to websites (X) where the userbase routinely criticises the policies of the current governments. We’ve also had confirmation that the UK is considering this.

6. ICE agent killing a woman. In itself, this should be a macro “nothingburger”. The reason it’s not, is that the response I’ve seen on the internet is terrifying. You have two sides, ready to support “their” government at all costs, just because they hate the other side so much. This is exactly the cultural sentiment required within a nation to lead to highly oppressive, overreaching, federal power grabs.

   1. To be clear, my belief is that you need to always stand for yourself, and your local community and push politicins towards this. Not blindly support the “party” that honestly, you barely align with (I say this because no party is actually serving the people that voted for them in the way the people voting expected to be served).

   2. So why is this important to macro? With points 1-5 above, and now such a clear demonstration that people will support their government just because they hate the other side, many people should be boosting their allocation to physical gold. Why gold and not silver? Because it’s dense, and valuable. This means you can put 750oz per backback, and go into hiding if shit hits the fan. Obviously, this is not the “ideal case”, and I don’t think this will be necessary in the next few years. The key with investing though, is that you want to protect your downside. In the event the government wants to apply a total reset to your net worth, your only option is the ownership of unregistered assets that are either easy to hike with, or easy to hide.

Until uncertainty gets lower, and we can have more confidence in all our Western governments, my personal strategy has been to routinely pull 20% of all realized gains out and put them into primarily physical silver (which I now regret because it’s too heavy on a value per oz basis compared to gold), but also gold, which I bought less of, and will now reverse that by buying only physical gold for awhile.

The last thing I’ll say on this, is that if you’re reading this and don’t own any physical gold or silver, just buy some. For me personally, I actually started sleeping better after I owned some. The reason is that I own something that’s always going to have some value attributed to it, so it’s a way of “decorrelatting” your wealth from the beta that is the ETF bubble.

As it’s not the point of this post, the ETF bubble is the current situation the stock market is in. Every 2 weeks, payday comes, and paychecks are auto deposited and automatically buy shares of SPY, VOO, QQQ, etc. This provides a constant “buyback-like” pressure that can drive share prices higher, and to more and more ludicrous valuation multiples. The thing that will pop this bubble will necessarily be deflationary (loss of jobs).

Idea 2: Patagonia gold PGDC.V (Last trade 0.46 CAD) HGLD (USD)

This is literally the most insane opportunity I’ve ever seen. To give credit where it’s due, Calvin Froedge called my phone and woke me up to tell me about it the morning he found it. I immediately opened a position because I think Calvin’s one of the best stock pickers on earth (even though his style is totally different to my own). Since then, we’ve talked about it some more and I’ve increased my position multiple times, and I’m still struggling to not buy more shares, and I’m sure I will buy more shares. I will explain why I’m struggling to concentrate heavily in this company later in this post.

My geologist friends both took long looks, and both said the geology is a go on not just Calcatreu, but every one of their Santa Cruz projects (some have hit drills up to 100g/t, others hit long regions of 19 g/t gold). These other properties have potential greater than their current development, which is ludicrously undervalued as is! Within the next 3-4 months, they will sell their first gold and silver from their Calcatreu mine. It’s a surface level heap leach project, so costs should be max $1500/oz all in sustaining costs (AISC), though likely closer to $1200 AISC/oz. Additionally, they’ll be producing 1mil oz of silver/yr via byproduct. A recent government report from Argentina’s ministry of mining has them down for 97k oz gold/yr, and slightly over 1mil silver oz/yr.

You’re looking at around 300mil USD in pre-tax profits per year. The mindblowing part? The current market cap is ~175mil USD, but there’s a caveat.

It gets crazier: >65% insider ownership.

The Caveat: An insider put up 40mil USD to fund the Calcatreu mine via preferred shares, all by themselves (this is EXACTLY what you want to see, not dilution, but insiders going all-in with large sums of money). This leads to a loss in potential investor profits, but even with this loss, it is significantly undervalued.

Until the preferred shares are paid off (40mil), 80% of cash goes to preferred shares, and 20% goes to common shares. Then the split beomes 60% common shares, 40% preferred. So with current gold and silver prices, that 40mil will be paid off almost instantly. With my geologist friends, we’ve given it 8 years life of mine because there’s exploration potential at Calcatreu (we believe this is conservative overall). With $4500 gold, $1500 AISC, $80 silver, $15 costs to get it purified and sold (likely an overestimate for both AISCs). Note: the 60/40 split common / preferred is only from profits from Calcatreu. When the free cash flow FCF from Calcatreu brings a second mine online, that will be 100% attributable to common shares.

They’ve also got tax writeoffs (carryforwards) from prior capex and losses, somewhere between 30mil USD to 150mil USD (I’m not an argentine accountant so I don’t know exactly how much they have). Nonetheless, when production comes online, a large portion of the first year should be tax free. So, those preferred shares really will be paid off lightning fast, and the FCF to support a second mine (and third) will immediately be flowing into the bank account.

I could say more, and go into their other properties, but we’re talking about a 150mil USD market cap with a current fair net present value of 1.325bil USD. This also provides silver exposure, if we do see the $200+ silver prices finance twitter (fintwit) thinks is coming, this is all you need to enjoy a >10x into the sunset.

My model (taking into account preferred shares) for the first year is below, with the base case (97k oz/yr gold and 950k silver oz/yr) and conservative case being 600k oz/yr silver produced and 70k gold oz/yr.

Overall, I see the risk with PGDC being much higher than with MAI, so I’ve bought $1 of PGDC for every $3 of MAI., i.e. a 3:1 ratio MAI:PGDC. These two stocks are > 80% of my current net worth in stocks (before accounting for the MAI I’ve bought using margin debt + additional debt).

The reason for my being shy with PGDC is as follows: PGDC don’t really communicate with shareholders. I’m not even sure why they’re a public company, since many insiders seem to be billionaires. This is why I can’t bring myself to full port PGDC (and ignore MAI), which honestly, could end up being the correct decision.

An additional caveat: it’s hard to buy until a seller comes along and says “X” is my price. When that happens you can buy from them at ask, or possibly at bid if they’re dumping, but this is something that buying tends to cause price discovery on. That’s not a bad thing, but you need more confidence than usual to open a position. It’s likely that people trying to fill bids will be left behind if Calcatreu goes anything even close to what I’ve modeled.

The other 20% of my portfolio, the less important stuff.

I’m likely to write up more on these lesser convicted picks later, but for now I’m just giving very short summaries as this writeup is already getting long. The idea with all these names is either beta to the underlying commodity price, or betting on geopolitics, or resource nationalization.

My largest holding in this 20% is GSVR, which totally dwarfs the rest.

1. Guanajuato Silver (GSVR.V (Last trade 0.70 CAD) GSVRF (USD)). This is a beta play on silver and gold prices continuing higher. Their recent acquisition suppressed the share price a bit more than I believe is reasonable. They’ve got multiple mines (reduces risk to mine failure) and a nice synergy going for themselves, with their recent acquisition greatly boosting this synergy. The market hated the dilution for this acquisition, and dumped shares en masse, giving what I think is an easy near-term return as this should 1.5x to 2x to catch up to where it should be vs other silver miners. I expect the shares to start to rerate higher on the news drop about closing their Bolanitos acquisition within ~4 weeks. It’s easy to model G Silver achieving forward FCF/yr of 250mil USD/yr, to 400mil USD/yr, without requiring much movement in gold in silver prices. With a current market cap of ~350mil USD, it’s very cheap. [The mining situation (cartel murdering miners) hurt this one even though $GSVR is in a much better part of Mexico. I have been gently adding to this].

2. Bravo Mining Corp (BRVO.V (Last trade 4.7 CAD)). Platinum / Palladium / Rhodium / Copper beta. High insider ownership. This is my way of getting beta to PGMs. I’ve only spent about 20 minutes researching this company fundamentally, so this purchase and my current ownership of it is purely based on technicals, and FOMO (I don’t want to miss out on PGMs spiking, since I only own physical platinum and palladium, and have no interest in increasing my physical ownership of those metals). [I have added to this position on this dip around $4 average].

3. Black Bear Minerals (BKBMF Last trade 0.64 (USD) and on the ASX, BKB (AUD)). They own and will develop the Shafer silver asset (an old mine) that’s very interesting. Shafter is also located in the USA, which means it should deserve the “USA premium asset” premium, which is certainly not priced into the share price. 289g/t Ag is the average grade, and that’s a fantastic grade even with $40-45 silver. [I haven’t touched this position, I still think it’s a good long-term hold].

   

4. GLO.TO (global atomic 0.95 CAD) I have 7% of one tax protected account in here, and that’s all I’m going to risk because uranium investing is not fun. This is either a 3x or a 0x. I don’t even know if it’s worth betting on since I’d say things like Minera Alamos are a likely 3-4x, with a low chance of being a 0.75x. The risk reward probably isn’t here, but I can’t avoid owning some, because sure, there’s a chance we see >$250 uranium and Global Atomic goes nuclear (low chance, but “could” happen). [I exited this position around 0.88]

5. MOLY.TO (Greenland resources 1.74 CAD), a molybdenum play. I’m not currently buying this because I’m uncertain about whether it pulls back, which I feel like it will (but I’m far from an oracle and feel things will pull back often when they never do). Molybdenum also hasn’t gone up lately, so it’s wasteful to buy this compared to other metals, many of which are just beginning to print breakouts. [This did pull back, and I added at 1.6].

Some rambles on silver and gold macro.

Gold.

As aforementioned, gold macro in 2026 is intense. It feels as though almost surely, we get beyond $5000 gold, and possibly toward $6000. Why? Here’s the obvious:

1. Trump dividend checks for $2000/american before midterms. This is a 600bil M2 injection, also known as liquidity dessert Trump has promised is coming in 2026.

2. Trump backing mortgages now (200bil)

3. Jerome Powell out in May ==> more rate cuts?

4. Jerome Powell just posted a video via the federal reserve X account (WTF)

5. More USA military spending from 1tril to 1.5tril, +50% on what was already the largest in the world. (+500bil)

6. Venezuala situation precedes boost to mililtary spending

   1. Iran situation (ongoing and escalating now, precedes boost to military spending)

7. Buying Greenland !?

Point is: M2 isn’t just going to expand, it’s going to expand rapidly, as the big beautiful bill reduced federal taxes collected. It’s hard to believe the USD won’t drop at least another 10% this year. Remember, Trump recently said “A strong USD means we can’t sell anyone anything”.

Of course, we could always get rug pulled and gold stops going up due to retail dumping of jewelry, bullion, etc. I find this unlikely however, as retail have surely noticed the inflation hurting their day-to-day purchases. Most retail investors I know who are female, and want gold jewelry, are of the opinion that they’re being priced out from being able to buy gold jewelry in the future. If that’s the feeling of women at large, it’s unlikely they sell their gold jewelry.

Also, India’s wedding season ends in February/early March, and typically corresponds to peak retail demand for new gold jewelry in India.

The less obvious tailwinds for gold are much more schizophrenic, but we’ve seen some very interesting signs that SPY, VOO and QQQ must continue to go up. $NVDA’s CEO has told employees that should they beat earnings too much, they’ll crash the market because it’s a bubble, and should they miss earnings, they’ll crash the market because it’s a bubble. In general, the technocrats (Peter Thiel and co) seem to be pushing for M2 expansion and liquidity dessert. This makes sense because for the most part, American tech companies are the most efficient on earth at vacuuming up newly printed money that enters circulation.

Silver.

Silver has been in a substantial supply deficit for years now. This deficit is supposed to start “easing” in 2027 as demand for solar starts to wane due to grid saturation (you can’t use too much solar in the grid or there will be blackouts from inconsistent power). The surprise, has been that as solar-based silver demand is looking to start tapering off, demand for silver from robotics is looking to spike. Current humanoid robots (TSLA optimus, etc) use 30g to 100g of silver per unit. With Elon aiming to build one per household, that’s an unfathomably large surge in demand that the current silver supply chain can’t handle. It also serves to increase, while solar silver demand begins to decrease.

That said, silver could easily pull back here, and is a risky prospect to consider buying after a rather insane rally to conclude 2025. This is why my idea to primarily expose myself to it, is via a byproduct producer (PGDC) that’s substantially undervalued using just their projected gold production. My secondary idea is GSVR, because they also produce a lot of gold, and since silver is in the companies name, it maximizes buyers of the stock if retail “buy silver” mania occurs.

Conclusions, ramblings, rants, delusions and prophecies.

For starters, I’m extremely confident in MAI performing well this year (I’m feeling >1.8x) and mostly confident in PGDC, which I’m not able to estimate the downside in accurately (which is why it’s a smaller position than MAI). My confidence is why I have 80% of my net portfolio in these two stocks. I truly believe PGDC has risk, and to be clear, the reason I’m concentrating in it is because I made so much money last year that I genuinely wouldn’t care if I lost a bunch of it.

Recently, insiders in MAI participated > 1mil in a private placement, and made some buys on the open market. Since they’re supposed to be bringing copperstone online in Q4 2026, it makes sense they’d front-run the news if they’re confident they’ll reach targets.

Also, the reason I’ve put PGDC into this substack and haven’t tweeted it is because it’s very illiquid—most owners seem to want to keep owning their shares. I think, with its current market cap (<200mil USD), if I tweet a thread on it, I’d move the price, and this isn’t my goal. Personally, I had to buy >90% of my shares already by chasing the ask (my average entry price is around 0.44 CAD).

The final thing I’ll say about this, is that it’s not in my interest for shares of a stock to go up because the stock is being tweeted about. Unlike others, who have investing strategies where they “sell half once it’s up +100% to let the rest ride risk free”, I double, triple, quadruple, and etc down. The point I’m making here, is that I hope you, my readers, don’t rush in to PGDC and fight each other and move the price. Take your time with it, buy small batches overtime and average into it if you’re going to buy it, and be reasonable about position sizing. There’s many bullish signs, yes, but there’s a strong bearish negative, being a total lack of engagement with shareholders. This is again, why I’ve bought primarily Minera. Anyway, I’m realizing as I finish writing this that gold is skyrocketing, so it’s likely PGDC and MAI are significantly up in the near term anyway.

An example of me doing this, is that with Andean precious metals, I bought it the entire way from $1.4 CAD to $8 CAD, maxing my margin buying power out repeatedly. I received >40 margin call emails between April and December. Only one of those emails resulted in me being forced to sell shares, so for the most part I played the bull perfectly. For me: it’s the case that as the story becomes more clear, as my ability to see the future value crystalizes into reality, I view it as a confirmation, and I respond by buying more and stamping on the gas pedal. I absolutely do not recommend this strategy, if you do it wrong, you’ll immediately take a -50% to your porfolio, possibly even a -100%. I honestly believe people should not use margin.

The reason I use margin is because I’m trying to reach a net worth high enough to start my own company before I’m too old to. My issue, is more that I don’t have a high enough net worth invested, so I’m trying to get closer to the net worth I want invested via margin.

The reason I need to self fund is because that company will be—for the most part—incredibly hard to raise capital for, because I want to address and solve a few scientific problems that are considered “career killers”. They’re so hard, that no one will attempt them (and there’s no funding to attempt them in academia either), and ironically, they’re the only problems humanity should be working to solve. Almost all scientific research these days is just combinatorially mixing past ideas to make something new. Indeed, solving any of these problems would lead to extreme profitability, but it requires insanity to commit your life hard enough to actually solve them. This is however, a topic for another time.

Again, I’m not a financial advisor, so if you go out there and lose a bunch of money, you’ll have to take solace in the fact that I lost more than you, because I am using a lot of margin to boost my position size in MAI.

Have fun speculating, and thanks so much for supporting these scribbles as a paid subscriber!
G

P.S. in the future I will puting my ideas in the paid Substack, before I ever tweet about them, so alpha like my call to buy $APM.TO at $1.5/share in April 2025 will appear here, not on X.

And that my friends, is why only retail investors care about what I say: I’m not ranting, keep this point in mind as you read this article.

My internet information net just caught something, and it’s fantastic news.

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Before this Iran situation, I sent out a message (not a full article because it wasn’t a large enough position) to paying subs that I’d bought some Murphy oil around $30. This was a tiny single digit net worth percentage or something. It was just an idea I had in case something happened in Iran. Now that we’ve entered the beginning of an Iran war, I’ve bought the last oil stock I ever thought I would buy, in a 10% net worth position.

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This post is for paid subs since I feel this opportunity will pay off a lifetime worth of annual subcriptions, or even a lifetime worth of the more expensive stocks-speculator subscription (that lets you choose a price above the minimum $1337 CAD). This is an opportunity where the company doesn’t need to dilute a single time, and is bringing 118k oz gold production online by the end of 2028, and no one, literally no one on X is talking about this, because of how what I just found changes the story.

We’re talking about more FCF/sh than the current market cap, starting before the end of this year. In my entire lifetime of investing, I don’t think that I’ve ever seen an opportunity this mispriced because it has diversification baked into the thesis.

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If X and mainstream media are to be believed, it’s actually quite crazy what’s going on in Mexico. Effectively overnight, their tourism industry has been shot in the knees — with many major tourist destinations being locked down with “shelter in place orders”. I see this leading to four phenomena (the last one is most significant):

1. A reduction in Mexico’s future expected tourism revenue.

   1. I believe this will encourage Mexico to expedite even more mining permits — afterall, they’ve got a budget to balance. This is particularly bullish for Minera Alamos, for which the market still prices their Mexican assets at 0, and a permit would result in a substantial re-rate to a higher share price.

2. A reduction in the share price of pretty much every publicly traded company that’s operating primarily in Mexico, regardeless of whether the assets they operate are near or far from cartels.

   1. These depressed share prices should mean miners will struggle to raise capital to build projects

   2. Miners may now, instead of growing production, commit FCF to share buybacks, or, wait for better conditions to dilute at higher prices. This will lead to less commodity supply (think gold & silver) flowing out of Mexico in the near-term.

3. Supply chain issues: there’s so much ongoing domestic terrorism, it’s unlikely that business will be able to operate with their usual efficiencies.

   1. This will likely cause delays in mine construction plans, perhaps not significant (could just be on the order of 2-4 weeks), but a delay is a delay, and that means gold and particularly silver will have less near-term supply hitting the market.

4. A reminder that companies in third world countries really are shitcos, and they don’t deserve premiums and won’t acquire premiums without management committing to a strong share buyback of at least ~7.5% of the outstanding shares per year.

Overall, my thoughts on how this will influence my ideas are bullish, and are summarized below.

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The presentation includes the confirmation of many predictions I wrote about on X / in prior substack posts, in addition to a confirmation of the timelines I estimated for various projects. In one case, the timelines are better than I expected. As far as the guidance for the currently producing Pan Mine goes, it was bang on where I thought it would be (<=2k AISC and 35k oz in 2026).

This post is for paid subs as I’ll be walking through my reasoning about why I really like a few things that I’m seeing here.

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What happened: a Russian memo leaked where an idea for Russia to “return to the dollar” was pitched, with the condition of Russia being given what they want in Ukraine (so the EU would ultimately have to agree too).

Next: the media, optimizing for clicks, and large X accounts, optimizing for Elon bucks all ran with “the end of the de-dollarization trade is here!”, going viral. Silver crashed, gold dropped below 5k again. The reason for this crash appears to be emotions, driven by misreporting. Welcome to 2026, where everyone makes money based on how viral their post / news article is.

What’s the extent here: the memo only mentioned potentially settling trades in USD for LNG, fossil fuels, offshore oil, critical minerals, and, only for USA companies buying these. That’s basically already the case, except recently Russia has potentially made the USA companies buying things pay in Russian rubles, or sometimes, Russia just converted the USD to rubles. The reason for this was that Russia was trying to keep its own currency alive in the face of sanctions: they needed liquidity flowing into and supporting the ruble.

Looking into the future, we need to ask ourselves about some probabilities.

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